Journal ID : AMA-02-12-2023-12750
[This article belongs to Volume - 54, Issue - 12]
Total View : 434

Title : Weather forecast interpretation for improved agro-advisory for Cauvery Delta Zone of Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract :

Cauvery Delta Zone in Tamil Nadu is a significant area used for agricultural production, and its productivity is prominently influenced by weather. Farmers would find agro-services based on meteorological indicators to be beneficial. Interpretation and verification of weather forecast for Cauvery Delta Zone is the main subject of this study. Based on weather forecasts from the India Meteorological Department, advisory services were provided to seven districts in the Cauvery Delta Zone. Actual weather data collected at the Agrometeorological observatory of the Tamil Nadu Rice Research Institute, Aduthurai, was analysed to confirm the accuracy and validity of the weather forecast for 2022. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used to analyse the anticipated weather factors. Simple success probability analysis of rainfall forecast, 2022 indicated that in all districts more than 90 % success rate was registered during winter and summer. Minimum success rate was registered during NEM in most districts. Maximum temperature probability analysis indicated that higher success percentage was registered in most districts during winter, 2022. During summer highest success rate was recorded in Thajnavur district. Monsoon season (both SWM and NEM) registered less success rate than the winter and summer season. Forecast accuracy of wind speed is very poor in all districts for all season. This indicates clearly that there is a need to improve forecast accuracy for wind speed. Results confirm that weather forecast is useful for the farmers but further improvement of forecast accuracy is needed.

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