Journal ID : AMA-11-08-2021-10605
[This article belongs to Volume - 51, Issue - 03]
Total View : 432

Title : State of art of ARIMA modeling in top five egg production countries in World

Abstract :

Eggs constitute a good source for animal proteins and are considered as a food of great nutritional value. In this way, Eggs production has shown a marked increasing in the last years through the world. The objective of this work is to predict eggs production in the next years in the five highest producing countries in the world including China, the Unites States of America, India, Mexico and Indonesia using time series data from 1961 to 2019. Five ARIMA models (1,2,0), (5,2,0), (1,2,1), (4,2,1) and (2,2,0) were used. Results showed that the best model for China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and United States of America are ARIMA (1,2,0), (5,2,0), (1,2,1), (4,2,1) and (2,2,0) respectively. Eggs production prevision for the cited countries showed that except for the United States of America where the production would decrease for about (- 2.6%), an increasing of production of (16.7%), (15%), (13,7%) and (11.5%) would be observed in 2026 in China, India, Indonesia and Mexico respectively. The estimated production willbe 930104, 100920,83806, 71402, 42855 million numbers in 2026in China, India, United States, Mexico and Indonesia respectively. This study showed the importance of ARIMA models in the prediction of eggs production which could be helpful for decision-makers in planning for future food policy.

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