Journal ID : AMA-11-08-2021-10606
[This article belongs to Volume - 51, Issue - 03]
Total View : 448

Title : Modelling and forecasting of rice production in south Asian countries

Abstract :

This study aimed mainly at forecasting rice production in SAARC and Iran and is linked to the univariate time series prevision. The rice production forecast was done with the BATS and TBATS models, Holt's Linear Trend, (NNAR) model and ARIMA model. All the data series have been divided into training sets for model construction purposes between 1961 and 201 4, and testing sets for validation purposes between 2015 and 2019, and after the best model was selected, prediction was used between 2020 and 2025. From the forecast values, we conclude that rice production in SAARC countries including Iran will continue to increase in the next couple of years. In Pakistan, the highest production growth rate was estimated at 2.59%, while in Afghanistan the lowest growth rate was estimated at 0.13%. The highest SAARC country rice producer, India, is estimated to increase by 2.24 per cent. These findings may be important in building a successful policy on production by providing an idea of the expected production values or by assessing the performance of these policies and by predicting the food gap in rice crops.

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