Journal ID : AMA-09-11-2022-11800
[This article belongs to Volume - 53, Issue - 11]
Total View : 372

Title : Modeling and Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Cereals in Tamil Nadu using Linear and Non-Linear Models

Abstract :

The present study has been undertaken to identify the best Linear and Non-Linear growth models for the area, production and production of cereals in Tamil Nadu and to predict future forecasts (up to 2025 A.D). The time series data about the area, production and productivity of cereals in Tamil Nadu were collected from the Seasonal crop report of Tamil Nadu for the period of 50 years i.e., from 1971-72 to 2020-2021. The objective of this study was to fit different trend equations like linear and non-linear growth models of cereals in Tamil Nadu and then select the most appropriate model. The best-fitted model for future projection was chosen based upon the highest Theil's U-Statistic, coefficient of determination (R2) and with the least MAPE, MAE and RMSE values for the purpose of future forecasts up to 2025 A.D. It is observed that the average area, production and productivity of cereals in Tamil Nadu during the study period were 3242 thousand hectares, 7429 thousand tonnes and 2409 kg/ ha respectively. The future forecasts by the cubic model indicated that there would be a substantial increase area, production and productivity in the future. It was observed that the forecasted area by 2025 AD would be 3390 thousand hectares. The forecasted production and productivity would be 13093 thousand tonnes and 4229kg /ha respectively by 2025 AD.

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